The study finds that, assuming comparatively low global LNG demand, EU wholesale gas prices will on average be €1.6/MWh or 8% lower in 2020 if Nord Stream 2 is available, compared to a scenario without Nord Stream 2. Hence, for the year 2020, ewi ER&S finds that end consumers in the EU-28 would pay €7.9 billion less for their gas. Assuming a high global LNG demand, Nord Stream 2 would even reduce the 2020 gas bill of the EU-28 by €24.4 billion.
“We don’t know the development of global LNG markets and LNG import prices in the decades to come,” says Harald Hecking, head of the study and Managing Director of ewi ER&S. “But we do know that more competition among the sources of gas supply will decrease gas prices for the EU member states. Nord Stream 2 reduces the costs of Russian gas exports to Europe, hence making Russian gas more competitive in Europe. Not only does cheaper Russian gas bring down LNG prices, it will also create an alternative to LNG imports in times of tight global LNG markets.”
Natural gas production in the EU is expected to decline till 2030, whereas gas demand is only slightly decreasing. As gas imports from Norway and North Africa are also expected to stagnate the resulting future supply gap can be filled by a combination of LNG imports and additional Russian pipeline imports. Nord Stream 2 offers additional import quantities of Russian gas.
